Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cremonese win with a probability of 52.65%. A draw had a probability of 25.8% and a win for Spezia had a probability of 21.57%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cremonese win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.53%) and 2-1 (9.26%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.07%), while for a Spezia win it was 0-1 (7.88%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.1% likelihood.
0.28) 
-0.15) 
