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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Defensor Sporting win with a probability of 54.8%. A draw had a probability of 25% and a win for Montevideo Wanderers had a probability of 20.17%.
The most likely scoreline for a Defensor Sporting win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.93%) and 2-1 (9.4%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.76%), while for a Montevideo Wanderers win it was 0-1 (7.35%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.8% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Defensor Sporting | Draw | Montevideo Wanderers |
54.8% ( -0.6) | 25.03% ( 0.15) | 20.17% ( 0.44) |
| Both teams to score 46.04% ( 0.21) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 44.57% ( -0.07) | 55.42% ( 0.07) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 23.38% ( -0.05) | 76.62% ( 0.05) |
| Defensor Sporting Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.79% ( -0.26) | 20.21% ( 0.26) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 47.48% ( -0.42) | 52.52% ( 0.42) |
| Montevideo Wanderers Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 57.7% ( 0.45) | 42.3% ( -0.45) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 21.3% ( 0.38) | 78.7% ( -0.38) |
| Score Analysis |
| Defensor Sporting | Draw | Montevideo Wanderers |
| 1-0 @ 13.66% ( -0.08) 2-0 @ 10.93% ( -0.15)2-1 @ 9.4% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 5.83% ( -0.13)3-1 @ 5.01% ( -0.05)4-0 @ 2.33% ( -0.07)3-2 @ 2.16% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 2% ( -0.04)Other @ 3.47% Total : 54.79% | 1-1 @ 11.76% ( 0.08) 0-0 @ 8.55% ( 0.02)2-2 @ 4.05% ( 0.04)Other @ 0.67% Total : 25.03% | 0-1 @ 7.35% ( 0.11) 1-2 @ 5.06% ( 0.1)0-2 @ 3.16% ( 0.08)1-3 @ 1.45% ( 0.05)2-3 @ 1.16% ( 0.03)0-3 @ 0.91% ( 0.04)Other @ 1.08% Total : 20.17% |
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