Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Defensor Sporting win with a probability of 53.96%. A draw had a probability of 25.2% and a win for Deportivo Maldonado had a probability of 20.84%.
The most likely scoreline for a Defensor Sporting win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.68%) and 1-2 (9.4%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.85%), while for a Deportivo Maldonado win it was 1-0 (7.48%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 10.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Defensor Sporting would win this match.
