SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 43.05%. A win for Middlesbrough had a probability of 31.63% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.99%) and 2-0 (7.19%). The likeliest Middlesbrough win was 0-1 (7.99%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.98%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Derby County in this match.
| Result | ||
| Derby County | Draw | Middlesbrough |
43.05% ( -2.21) | 25.32% ( -0.18) | 31.63% ( 2.39) |
| Both teams to score 55.42% ( 1.83) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 51.84% ( 1.82) | 48.16% ( -1.82) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 29.69% ( 1.65) | 70.31% ( -1.65) |
| Derby County Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.68% ( -0.25) | 22.32% ( 0.25) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 44.21% ( -0.38) | 55.79% ( 0.38) |
| Middlesbrough Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.34% ( 2.58) | 28.66% ( -2.58) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 35.52% ( 3.11) | 64.48% ( -3.11) |
| Score Analysis |
| Derby County | Draw | Middlesbrough |
| 1-0 @ 9.59% ( -0.82) 2-1 @ 8.99% ( -0.17)2-0 @ 7.19% ( -0.68)3-1 @ 4.5% ( -0.12)3-0 @ 3.6% ( -0.37)3-2 @ 2.81% ( 0.12)4-1 @ 1.69% ( -0.06)4-0 @ 1.35% ( -0.15)4-2 @ 1.05% ( 0.04)Other @ 2.28% Total : 43.05% | 1-1 @ 11.98% ( -0.13) 0-0 @ 6.4% ( -0.5)2-2 @ 5.62% ( 0.29)3-3 @ 1.17% ( 0.13)Other @ 0.15% Total : 25.31% | 0-1 @ 7.99% ( -0.03) 1-2 @ 7.49% ( 0.44)0-2 @ 4.99% ( 0.33)1-3 @ 3.12% ( 0.39)2-3 @ 2.34% ( 0.27)0-3 @ 2.08% ( 0.27)1-4 @ 0.98% ( 0.18)Other @ 2.64% Total : 31.63% |
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