Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fluminense win with a probability of 38.6%. A win for Fortaleza had a probability of 35.09% and a draw had a probability of 26.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fluminense win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.4%) and 0-2 (6.63%). The likeliest Fortaleza win was 1-0 (9.32%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.51%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 0.7% likelihood.
0.14) 
-0.07) 
