SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a LDU Quito win with a probability of 49.06%. A win for Defensa y Justicia had a probability of 26.36% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a LDU Quito win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.51%) and 2-0 (8.42%). The likeliest Defensa y Justicia win was 0-1 (7.14%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.65%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 4.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that LDU Quito would win this match.
| Result | ||
| LDU Quito | Draw | Defensa y Justicia |
49.06% ( 0.32) | 24.58% ( -0.48) | 26.36% ( 0.16) |
| Both teams to score 54.43% ( 1.66) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 52.11% ( 2.11) | 47.89% ( -2.11) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 29.93% ( 1.92) | 70.07% ( -1.91) |
| LDU Quito Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.44% ( 0.98) | 19.56% ( -0.98) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 48.52% ( 1.57) | 51.48% ( -1.57) |
| Defensa y Justicia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.67% ( 1.25) | 32.33% ( -1.25) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 31.16% ( 1.39) | 68.84% ( -1.39) |
| Score Analysis |
| LDU Quito | Draw | Defensa y Justicia |
| 1-0 @ 10.32% ( -0.59) 2-1 @ 9.51% ( 0.08)2-0 @ 8.42% ( -0.22)3-1 @ 5.17% ( 0.19)3-0 @ 4.58% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 2.92% ( 0.2)4-1 @ 2.11% ( 0.14)4-0 @ 1.87% ( 0.06)4-2 @ 1.19% ( 0.12)Other @ 2.98% Total : 49.06% | 1-1 @ 11.65% ( -0.26) 0-0 @ 6.33% ( -0.57)2-2 @ 5.37% ( 0.22)3-3 @ 1.1% ( 0.11)Other @ 0.14% Total : 24.58% | 0-1 @ 7.14% ( -0.39) 1-2 @ 6.58% ( 0.08)0-2 @ 4.03% ( -0.08)1-3 @ 2.48% ( 0.11)2-3 @ 2.02% ( 0.15)0-3 @ 1.52% ( 0.02)Other @ 2.6% Total : 26.36% |
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