SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Luton Town win with a probability of 42.68%. A win for Stoke City had a probability of 31.41% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Luton Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.89%) and 2-0 (7.41%). The likeliest Stoke City win was 0-1 (8.54%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.31%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Luton Town in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Luton Town.
| Result | ||
| Luton Town | Draw | Stoke City |
42.68% ( 0.56) | 25.91% ( 0.08) | 31.41% ( -0.64) |
| Both teams to score 53.38% ( -0.5) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 49.24% ( -0.53) | 50.76% ( 0.53) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 27.34% ( -0.47) | 72.66% ( 0.47) |
| Luton Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.38% ( 0.05) | 23.62% ( -0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 42.3% ( 0.07) | 57.7% ( -0.07) |
| Stoke City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.88% ( -0.69) | 30.12% ( 0.69) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 33.74% ( -0.84) | 66.26% ( 0.84) |
| Score Analysis |
| Luton Town | Draw | Stoke City |
| 1-0 @ 10.26% ( 0.23) 2-1 @ 8.89% ( 0.04)2-0 @ 7.41% ( 0.18)3-1 @ 4.28% ( 0.03)3-0 @ 3.56% ( 0.09)3-2 @ 2.57% ( -0.03)4-1 @ 1.54% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 1.29% ( 0.03)4-2 @ 0.93% ( -0.01)Other @ 1.96% Total : 42.68% | 1-1 @ 12.31% ( 0.04) 0-0 @ 7.11% ( 0.15)2-2 @ 5.33% ( -0.08)3-3 @ 1.03% ( -0.03)Other @ 0.12% Total : 25.9% | 0-1 @ 8.54% ( 0.02) 1-2 @ 7.39% ( -0.12)0-2 @ 5.12% ( -0.09)1-3 @ 2.96% ( -0.11)2-3 @ 2.13% ( -0.07)0-3 @ 2.05% ( -0.08)Other @ 3.22% Total : 31.41% |
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