SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mainz 05 win with a probability of 51.59%. A win for Werder Bremen had a probability of 24.66% and a draw had a probability of 23.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mainz 05 win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.69%) and 2-0 (8.64%). The likeliest Werder Bremen win was 0-1 (6.48%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.2%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 6.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Werder Bremen would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Mainz 05 | Draw | Werder Bremen |
51.59% ( 1.44) | 23.75% ( 0.17) | 24.66% ( -1.61) |
| Both teams to score 55.48% ( -2.2) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 54.28% ( -2.16) | 45.72% ( 2.16) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 31.96% ( -2.09) | 68.04% ( 2.09) |
| Mainz 05 Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.26% ( -0.27) | 17.73% ( 0.27) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 51.59% ( -0.47) | 48.41% ( 0.47) |
| Werder Bremen Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.44% ( -2.44) | 32.56% ( 2.44) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 30.91% ( -2.83) | 69.09% ( 2.83) |
| Score Analysis |
| Mainz 05 | Draw | Werder Bremen |
| 1-0 @ 9.99% ( 0.81) 2-1 @ 9.69% ( 0.08)2-0 @ 8.64% ( 0.63)3-1 @ 5.59% ( -0)3-0 @ 4.98% ( 0.32)3-2 @ 3.14% ( -0.22)4-1 @ 2.42% ( -0.02)4-0 @ 2.15% ( 0.12)4-2 @ 1.36% ( -0.11)Other @ 3.64% Total : 51.59% | 1-1 @ 11.2% ( 0.19) 0-0 @ 5.77% ( 0.51)2-2 @ 5.44% ( -0.33)3-3 @ 1.17% ( -0.17)Other @ 0.15% Total : 23.74% | 0-1 @ 6.48% ( 0.17) 1-2 @ 6.29% ( -0.32)0-2 @ 3.64% ( -0.15)1-3 @ 2.35% ( -0.29)2-3 @ 2.03% ( -0.27)0-3 @ 1.36% ( -0.16)Other @ 2.52% Total : 24.66% |
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