SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 84.4%. A draw had a probability of 10.3% and a win for Bournemouth had a probability of 5.26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 3-0 with a probability of 11.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.65%) and 4-0 (8.65%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (4.79%), while for a Bournemouth win it was 1-2 (1.68%). The actual scoreline of 6-1 was predicted with a 2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Manchester City would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Manchester City | Draw | Bournemouth |
84.4% ( -0.03) | 10.34% ( 0.02) | 5.26% ( 0.01) |
| Both teams to score 48.19% ( -0.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 73.46% ( -0.05) | 26.55% ( 0.05) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 53.09% ( -0.07) | 46.91% ( 0.07) |
| Manchester City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 95.59% ( -0.01) | 4.42% ( 0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 81.81% ( -0.04) | 18.19% ( 0.05) |
| Bournemouth Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 50.42% ( -0) | 49.59% ( 0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 15.63% ( -0) | 84.37% ( 0.01) |
| Score Analysis |
| Manchester City | Draw | Bournemouth |
| 3-0 @ 11.08% 2-0 @ 10.65% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 8.65% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 7.78% ( 0)2-1 @ 7.48% ( 0.01)1-0 @ 6.83% ( 0.02)4-1 @ 6.06% ( -0.01)5-0 @ 5.39% ( -0.01)5-1 @ 3.78% ( -0.01)6-0 @ 2.81% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 2.73% 4-2 @ 2.13% ( -0)6-1 @ 1.97% ( -0.01)5-2 @ 1.33% ( -0)7-0 @ 1.25% ( -0)Other @ 4.49% Total : 84.39% | 1-1 @ 4.79% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 2.62% ( 0)0-0 @ 2.19% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.73% Total : 10.34% | 1-2 @ 1.68% ( 0) 0-1 @ 1.54% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.05% Total : 5.26% |
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