SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nacional win with a probability of 42.74%. A win for Penarol had a probability of 30.41% and a draw had a probability of 26.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nacional win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.72%) and 2-0 (7.85%). The likeliest Penarol win was 0-1 (9.3%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.73%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.7% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Nacional | Draw | Penarol |
42.74% ( -0.15) | 26.85% ( -0.07) | 30.41% ( 0.21) |
| Both teams to score 50.03% ( 0.29) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 45.12% ( 0.33) | 54.88% ( -0.33) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 23.83% ( 0.27) | 76.17% ( -0.27) |
| Nacional Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.58% ( 0.07) | 25.42% ( -0.07) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 39.77% ( 0.1) | 60.23% ( -0.1) |
| Penarol Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.08% ( 0.32) | 32.92% ( -0.33) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 30.5% ( 0.36) | 69.5% ( -0.36) |
| Score Analysis |
| Nacional | Draw | Penarol |
| 1-0 @ 11.46% ( -0.12) 2-1 @ 8.72% ( 0)2-0 @ 7.85% ( -0.07)3-1 @ 3.98% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 3.58% ( -0.02)3-2 @ 2.21% ( 0.03)4-1 @ 1.36% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 1.23% ( -0)Other @ 2.34% Total : 42.74% | 1-1 @ 12.73% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 8.37% ( -0.11)2-2 @ 4.85% ( 0.04)Other @ 0.9% Total : 26.85% | 0-1 @ 9.3% ( -0.04) 1-2 @ 7.07% ( 0.05)0-2 @ 5.16% ( 0.02)1-3 @ 2.62% ( 0.04)0-3 @ 1.91% ( 0.03)2-3 @ 1.79% ( 0.03)Other @ 2.54% Total : 30.41% |
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