SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sao Paulo win with a probability of 44.38%. A win for Nacional had a probability of 28.5% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sao Paulo win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.77%) and 0-2 (8.42%). The likeliest Nacional win was 1-0 (9.34%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.79%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with an 9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.
| Result | ||
| Nacional | Draw | Sao Paulo |
28.5% ( 0.25) | 27.12% ( 0.32) | 44.38% ( -0.57) |
| Both teams to score 48.25% ( -0.76) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 43.32% ( -1.05) | 56.68% ( 1.05) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 22.36% ( -0.85) | 77.64% ( 0.85) |
| Nacional Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.68% ( -0.37) | 35.32% ( 0.36) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 27.93% ( -0.38) | 72.07% ( 0.38) |
| Sao Paulo Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.6% ( -0.75) | 25.4% ( 0.75) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 39.79% ( -1.04) | 60.21% ( 1.04) |
| Score Analysis |
| Nacional | Draw | Sao Paulo |
| 1-0 @ 9.34% ( 0.28) 2-1 @ 6.66% ( -0.01)2-0 @ 4.86% ( 0.1)3-1 @ 2.31% ( -0.03)3-0 @ 1.69% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 1.58% ( -0.05)Other @ 2.07% Total : 28.5% | 1-1 @ 12.79% ( 0.11) 0-0 @ 8.97% ( 0.36)2-2 @ 4.56% ( -0.11)Other @ 0.79% Total : 27.11% | 0-1 @ 12.29% ( 0.23) 1-2 @ 8.77% ( -0.11)0-2 @ 8.42% ( -0.03)1-3 @ 4.01% ( -0.14)0-3 @ 3.85% ( -0.1)2-3 @ 2.08% ( -0.09)1-4 @ 1.37% ( -0.08)0-4 @ 1.32% ( -0.06)Other @ 2.27% Total : 44.38% |
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