Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Panathinaikos win with a probability of 36.63%. A win for AEK Athens had a probability of 36.45% and a draw had a probability of 26.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Panathinaikos win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.05%) and 2-0 (6.42%). The likeliest AEK Athens win was 0-1 (10.16%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.79%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8% likelihood.
-0.12) 
0.05) 
