SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 87.24%. A draw had a probability of 9.2% and a win for Casa Pia had a probability of 3.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 3-0 with a probability of 13.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.93%) and 4-0 (10.27%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (4.36%), while for a Casa Pia win it was 0-1 (1.41%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 12.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Porto would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Porto | Draw | Casa Pia |
87.24% ( 0.01) | 9.16% ( -0) | 3.6% ( -0) |
| Both teams to score 38.66% ( -0.02) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 69.83% ( -0.01) | 30.17% ( 0.01) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 48.6% ( -0.01) | 51.39% ( 0.01) |
| Porto Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 95.43% ( 0) | 4.57% ( -0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 81.34% | 18.66% |
| Casa Pia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 40.51% ( -0.02) | 59.48% ( 0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 9.61% ( -0.01) | 90.38% ( 0.01) |
| Score Analysis |
| Porto | Draw | Casa Pia |
| 3-0 @ 13.31% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 12.93% 4-0 @ 10.27% ( 0.01)1-0 @ 8.38% ( 0)3-1 @ 6.91% ( -0)2-1 @ 6.72% ( -0)5-0 @ 6.34% ( 0)4-1 @ 5.34% ( -0)5-1 @ 3.29% ( -0)6-0 @ 3.26% ( 0)3-2 @ 1.8% ( -0)6-1 @ 1.69% ( -0)7-0 @ 1.44% 4-2 @ 1.39% ( -0)Other @ 4.16% Total : 87.23% | 1-1 @ 4.36% ( -0) 0-0 @ 2.72% ( 0)2-2 @ 1.75% ( -0)Other @ 0.34% Total : 9.16% | 0-1 @ 1.41% 1-2 @ 1.13% ( -0)Other @ 1.05% Total : 3.6% |
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