SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Progreso win with a probability of 42.02%. A win for Cerro had a probability of 29.51% and a draw had a probability of 28.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Progreso win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.25%) and 2-1 (8.23%). The likeliest Cerro win was 0-1 (10.55%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.17%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 10.6% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Progreso | Draw | Cerro |
| 42.02% | 28.47% | 29.51% ( 0) |
Both teams to score 45.02% ( -0) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 38.98% ( -0) | 61.02% ( 0) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 18.99% ( -0) | 81.01% ( 0) |
| Progreso Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.32% ( -0) | 28.68% ( 0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 35.5% ( -0) | 64.5% ( 0) |
| Cerro Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.13% | 36.87% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 26.34% ( -0) | 73.66% ( 0) |
| Score Analysis |
| Progreso | Draw | Cerro |
| 1-0 @ 13.2% 2-0 @ 8.25% 2-1 @ 8.23% 3-0 @ 3.43% 3-1 @ 3.43% 3-2 @ 1.71% 4-0 @ 1.07% 4-1 @ 1.07% Other @ 1.62% Total : 42.01% | 1-1 @ 13.17% 0-0 @ 10.57% 2-2 @ 4.11% ( -0)Other @ 0.61% Total : 28.46% | 0-1 @ 10.55% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 6.57% 0-2 @ 5.26% 1-3 @ 2.19% 0-3 @ 1.75% 2-3 @ 1.37% Other @ 1.82% Total : 29.51% |
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