SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a PSV Eindhoven win with a probability of 65.48%. A win for Ajax had a probability of 17.31% and a draw had a probability of 17.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a PSV Eindhoven win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (7.71%) and 2-0 (6.67%). The likeliest Ajax win was 1-2 (4.41%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (6.69%). The actual scoreline of 5-2 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that PSV Eindhoven would win this match.
| Result | ||
| PSV Eindhoven | Draw | Ajax |
65.48% ( 1.59) | 17.2% ( -0.31) | 17.31% ( -1.29) |
| Both teams to score 67.97% ( -1.53) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 75.43% ( -0.8) | 24.56% ( 0.8) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 55.65% ( -1.07) | 44.35% ( 1.06) |
| PSV Eindhoven Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 92.79% ( 0.09) | 7.21% ( -0.09) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 73.84% ( 0.23) | 26.16% ( -0.24) |
| Ajax Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.25% ( -1.72) | 26.74% ( 1.72) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 37.98% ( -2.33) | 62.02% ( 2.33) |
| Score Analysis |
| PSV Eindhoven | Draw | Ajax |
| 2-1 @ 8.79% ( 0.13) 3-1 @ 7.71% ( 0.15)2-0 @ 6.67% ( 0.41)3-0 @ 5.85% ( 0.39)3-2 @ 5.08% ( -0.16)4-1 @ 5.07% ( 0.12)1-0 @ 5.07% ( 0.29)4-0 @ 3.84% ( 0.27)4-2 @ 3.34% ( -0.09)5-1 @ 2.67% ( 0.08)5-0 @ 2.02% ( 0.15)5-2 @ 1.76% ( -0.04)4-3 @ 1.47% ( -0.11)6-1 @ 1.17% ( 0.04)Other @ 4.98% Total : 65.48% | 1-1 @ 6.69% ( 0.06) 2-2 @ 5.8% ( -0.21)3-3 @ 2.24% ( -0.18)0-0 @ 1.93% ( 0.1)Other @ 0.56% Total : 17.2% | 1-2 @ 4.41% ( -0.18) 2-3 @ 2.55% ( -0.22)0-1 @ 2.54% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 1.94% ( -0.18)0-2 @ 1.68% ( -0.08)Other @ 4.2% Total : 17.31% |
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