SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Madrid win with a probability of 48.91%. A win for Real Sociedad had a probability of 26.59% and a draw had a probability of 24.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Real Madrid win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.5%) and 0-2 (8.32%). The likeliest Real Sociedad win was 1-0 (7.09%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.6%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with an 8.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Real Madrid would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Real Sociedad | Draw | Real Madrid |
26.59% ( 0.1) | 24.51% ( 0.03) | 48.91% ( -0.13) |
| Both teams to score 54.86% ( -0) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 52.58% ( -0.05) | 47.42% ( 0.05) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 30.37% ( -0.05) | 69.63% ( 0.05) |
| Real Sociedad Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.1% ( 0.05) | 31.9% ( -0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 31.65% ( 0.06) | 68.35% ( -0.06) |
| Real Madrid Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.56% ( -0.07) | 19.44% ( 0.07) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 48.72% ( -0.11) | 51.28% ( 0.12) |
| Score Analysis |
| Real Sociedad | Draw | Real Madrid |
| 1-0 @ 7.09% ( 0.03) 2-1 @ 6.63% ( 0.02)2-0 @ 4.05% ( 0.02)3-1 @ 2.52% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 2.07% ( 0)3-0 @ 1.54% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.69% Total : 26.59% | 1-1 @ 11.6% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 6.2% ( 0.01)2-2 @ 5.43% ( 0)3-3 @ 1.13% Other @ 0.14% Total : 24.5% | 0-1 @ 10.15% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 9.5% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 8.32% ( -0.02)1-3 @ 5.19% ( -0.02)0-3 @ 4.54% ( -0.02)2-3 @ 2.96% ( -0)1-4 @ 2.13% ( -0.01)0-4 @ 1.86% ( -0.01)2-4 @ 1.21% ( -0.01)Other @ 3.03% Total : 48.9% |
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