Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sao Paulo win with a probability of 45.87%. A draw had a probability of 27.2% and a win for Atletico Mineiro had a probability of 26.94%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sao Paulo win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.9%) and 2-1 (8.82%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.76%), while for an Atletico Mineiro win it was 0-1 (9.25%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood.
0.07) 
-0.02) 
