Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Boca Juniors win with a probability of 40.5%. A draw had a probability of 29.9% and a win for Sarmiento had a probability of 29.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Boca Juniors win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.2%) and 1-2 (7.66%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.37%), while for a Sarmiento win it was 1-0 (11.66%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.7% likelihood.
-0.36) 
0.39) 
