Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sochi win with a probability of 39.84%. A win for FC Krasnodar had a probability of 36.08% and a draw had a probability of 24.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sochi win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.45%) and 2-0 (5.83%). The likeliest FC Krasnodar win was 1-2 (8.16%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.02%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 5.2% likelihood.
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