Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Mineiro win with a probability of 37.72%. A win for Vasco da Gama had a probability of 35.07% and a draw had a probability of 27.2%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Mineiro win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.14%) and 0-2 (6.75%). The likeliest Vasco da Gama win was 1-0 (10.22%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.9%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.9% likelihood.
-0.63) 
0.71) 
