SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 48.6%. A win for Vitoria de Guimaraes had a probability of 26.84% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.48%) and 0-2 (8.26%). The likeliest Vitoria de Guimaraes win was 1-0 (7.13%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.62%). The actual scoreline of 4-4 was predicted with a 0.1% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Vitoria de Guimaraes | Draw | Sporting Lisbon |
26.84% ( 1.44) | 24.56% ( 0.14) | 48.6% ( -1.59) |
| Both teams to score 54.92% ( 0.87) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 52.56% ( 0.52) | 47.44% ( -0.52) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 30.34% ( 0.48) | 69.65% ( -0.48) |
| Vitoria de Guimaraes Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.28% ( 1.44) | 31.72% ( -1.44) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 31.86% ( 1.62) | 68.13% ( -1.62) |
| Sporting Lisbon Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.43% ( -0.44) | 19.57% ( 0.44) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 48.5% ( -0.72) | 51.49% ( 0.72) |
| Score Analysis |
| Vitoria de Guimaraes | Draw | Sporting Lisbon |
| 1-0 @ 7.13% ( 0.12) 2-1 @ 6.68% ( 0.28)2-0 @ 4.09% ( 0.23)3-1 @ 2.56% ( 0.2)3-2 @ 2.08% ( 0.14)3-0 @ 1.57% ( 0.14)Other @ 2.74% Total : 26.84% | 1-1 @ 11.62% ( 0.04) 0-0 @ 6.21% ( -0.14)2-2 @ 5.44% ( 0.16)3-3 @ 1.13% ( 0.06)Other @ 0.14% Total : 24.55% | 0-1 @ 10.12% ( -0.37) 1-2 @ 9.48% ( -0.09)0-2 @ 8.26% ( -0.42)1-3 @ 5.16% ( -0.12)0-3 @ 4.49% ( -0.29)2-3 @ 2.96% ( 0.05)1-4 @ 2.1% ( -0.08)0-4 @ 1.83% ( -0.15)2-4 @ 1.21% ( 0)Other @ 2.99% Total : 48.6% |
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