SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vizela win with a probability of 37.21%. A win for Arouca had a probability of 36.65% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vizela win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.25%) and 2-0 (6.27%). The likeliest Arouca win was 0-1 (9.36%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.42%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Vizela in this match.
| Result | ||
| Vizela | Draw | Arouca |
37.21% ( 1.25) | 26.14% ( 0.35) | 36.65% ( -1.6) |
| Both teams to score 53.75% ( -1.16) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 49.21% ( -1.49) | 50.79% ( 1.49) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 27.32% ( -1.33) | 72.68% ( 1.33) |
| Vizela Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.47% ( 0.01) | 26.52% ( -0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 38.27% ( 0.02) | 61.72% ( -0.02) |
| Arouca Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.15% ( -1.59) | 26.85% ( 1.59) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 37.85% ( -2.14) | 62.15% ( 2.14) |
| Score Analysis |
| Vizela | Draw | Arouca |
| 1-0 @ 9.45% ( 0.56) 2-1 @ 8.25% ( 0.13)2-0 @ 6.27% ( 0.37)3-1 @ 3.65% ( 0.06)3-0 @ 2.77% ( 0.17)3-2 @ 2.4% ( -0.07)4-1 @ 1.21% ( 0.02)4-0 @ 0.92% ( 0.06)Other @ 2.29% Total : 37.21% | 1-1 @ 12.42% ( 0.19) 0-0 @ 7.12% ( 0.42)2-2 @ 5.42% ( -0.16)3-3 @ 1.05% ( -0.08)Other @ 0.12% Total : 26.14% | 0-1 @ 9.36% ( 0.14) 1-2 @ 8.17% ( -0.25)0-2 @ 6.16% ( -0.19)1-3 @ 3.58% ( -0.28)0-3 @ 2.7% ( -0.21)2-3 @ 2.38% ( -0.19)1-4 @ 1.18% ( -0.15)Other @ 3.12% Total : 36.65% |
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