Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toulouse win with a probability of 53.95%. A draw had a probability of 25.3% and a win for Caen had a probability of 20.79%.
The most likely scoreline for a Toulouse win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.72%) and 1-2 (9.37%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.87%), while for a Caen win it was 1-0 (7.52%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 0.3% likelihood.
