Charlotte looked to have turned a corner in recent weeks, especially at home, so we think they will hold their own here against a New York City side that have struggled on the road all season.
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Charlotte FC win with a probability of 37.84%. A win for New York City FC had a probability of 36.15% and a draw had a probability of 26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Charlotte FC win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.35%) and 2-0 (6.35%). The likeliest New York City FC win was 0-1 (9.14%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.35%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Charlotte FC would win this match.
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