SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Philadelphia Union win with a probability of 58.62%. A draw had a probability of 22.1% and a win for New York City FC had a probability of 19.29%.
The most likely scoreline for a Philadelphia Union win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.02%) and 2-1 (9.93%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.45%), while for a New York City FC win it was 0-1 (5.51%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Philadelphia Union would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Philadelphia Union | Draw | New York City FC |
58.62% ( 2.6) | 22.09% ( -0.53) | 19.29% ( -2.08) |
| Both teams to score 53.45% ( -1.56) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 55.16% ( -0.47) | 44.83% ( 0.47) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 32.81% ( -0.46) | 67.19% ( 0.46) |
| Philadelphia Union Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.03% ( 0.7) | 14.97% ( -0.7) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 56.6% ( 1.31) | 43.4% ( -1.31) |
| New York City FC Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 62.86% ( -2.37) | 37.14% ( 2.37) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 26.07% ( -2.43) | 73.92% ( 2.43) |
| Score Analysis |
| Philadelphia Union | Draw | New York City FC |
| 1-0 @ 10.55% ( 0.46) 2-0 @ 10.02% ( 0.66)2-1 @ 9.93% ( 0.04)3-0 @ 6.35% ( 0.57)3-1 @ 6.29% ( 0.18)3-2 @ 3.11% ( -0.11)4-0 @ 3.01% ( 0.33)4-1 @ 2.99% ( 0.15)4-2 @ 1.48% ( -0.02)5-0 @ 1.15% ( 0.15)5-1 @ 1.13% ( 0.09)Other @ 2.6% Total : 58.6% | 1-1 @ 10.45% ( -0.21) 0-0 @ 5.56% ( 0.11)2-2 @ 4.92% ( -0.3)3-3 @ 1.03% ( -0.11)Other @ 0.13% Total : 22.09% | 0-1 @ 5.51% ( -0.25) 1-2 @ 5.18% ( -0.46)0-2 @ 2.73% ( -0.31)1-3 @ 1.71% ( -0.28)2-3 @ 1.62% ( -0.22)Other @ 2.54% Total : 19.29% |
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