SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Philadelphia Union win with a probability of 50.26%. A win for DC United had a probability of 26.53% and a draw had a probability of 23.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Philadelphia Union win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.65%) and 2-0 (7.73%). The likeliest DC United win was 1-2 (6.66%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.72%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 2.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Philadelphia Union would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Philadelphia Union | Draw | DC United |
50.26% ( 0.04) | 23.2% ( -0.01) | 26.53% ( -0.04) |
| Both teams to score 59.2% ( -0) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 58.34% ( 0.01) | 41.65% ( -0.02) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 35.94% ( 0.01) | 64.05% ( -0.02) |
| Philadelphia Union Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.28% ( 0.02) | 16.71% ( -0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 53.38% ( 0.04) | 46.61% ( -0.04) |
| DC United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.08% ( -0.02) | 28.91% ( 0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 35.2% ( -0.02) | 64.79% ( 0.02) |
| Score Analysis |
| Philadelphia Union | Draw | DC United |
| 2-1 @ 9.6% ( 0) 1-0 @ 8.65% 2-0 @ 7.73% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 5.72% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 4.61% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 3.55% ( 0)4-1 @ 2.56% ( 0)4-0 @ 2.06% ( 0)4-2 @ 1.59% ( 0)5-1 @ 0.92% ( 0)Other @ 3.28% Total : 50.26% | 1-1 @ 10.72% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 5.95% ( -0)0-0 @ 4.83% ( -0)3-3 @ 1.47% Other @ 0.22% Total : 23.2% | 1-2 @ 6.66% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 6% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 3.72% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 2.75% ( -0)2-3 @ 2.46% ( -0)0-3 @ 1.54% ( -0)Other @ 3.41% Total : 26.53% |
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