SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 3 | New York Red Bulls | 31 | 8 | 50 |
| 4 | New York City FC | 31 | 13 | 46 |
| 5 | Orlando City | 30 | -10 | 42 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 2 | CF Montreal | 31 | 11 | 56 |
| 3 | New York Red Bulls | 31 | 8 | 50 |
| 4 | Columbus Crew | 30 | 5 | 41 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York City FC win with a probability of 53.35%. A draw had a probability of 23.7% and a win for New York Red Bulls had a probability of 22.94%.
The most likely scoreline for a New York City FC win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.75%) and 2-0 (9.27%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.24%), while for a New York Red Bulls win it was 0-1 (6.48%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that New York City FC would win this match.
| Result | ||
| New York City FC | Draw | New York Red Bulls |
53.35% ( -3.78) | 23.71% ( 1.08) | 22.94% ( 2.7) |
| Both teams to score 53.61% ( 0.31) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 52.75% ( -1.44) | 47.25% ( 1.44) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 30.52% ( -1.35) | 69.48% ( 1.35) |
| New York City FC Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.35% ( -1.85) | 17.65% ( 1.85) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 51.74% ( -3.31) | 48.26% ( 3.32) |
| New York Red Bulls Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.1% ( 1.8) | 34.9% ( -1.8) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 28.36% ( 1.85) | 71.64% ( -1.85) |
| Score Analysis |
| New York City FC | Draw | New York Red Bulls |
| 1-0 @ 10.68% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 9.75% ( -0.14)2-0 @ 9.27% ( -0.61)3-1 @ 5.64% ( -0.45)3-0 @ 5.36% ( -0.72)3-2 @ 2.97% ( -0.08)4-1 @ 2.45% ( -0.36)4-0 @ 2.32% ( -0.48)4-2 @ 1.29% ( -0.12)Other @ 3.63% Total : 53.35% | 1-1 @ 11.24% ( 0.52) 0-0 @ 6.16% ( 0.36)2-2 @ 5.13% ( 0.18)3-3 @ 1.04% ( 0.02)Other @ 0.13% Total : 23.7% | 0-1 @ 6.48% ( 0.67) 1-2 @ 5.92% ( 0.55)0-2 @ 3.41% ( 0.5)1-3 @ 2.08% ( 0.28)2-3 @ 1.8% ( 0.14)0-3 @ 1.2% ( 0.22)Other @ 2.05% Total : 22.94% |
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