SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Portland Timbers win with a probability of 55.06%. A win for Minnesota United had a probability of 23.34% and a draw had a probability of 21.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Portland Timbers win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.87%) and 2-0 (7.86%). The likeliest Minnesota United win was 1-2 (6.01%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.73%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Portland Timbers would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Portland Timbers | Draw | Minnesota United |
55.06% ( -0.32) | 21.6% ( 0.13) | 23.34% ( 0.19) |
| Both teams to score 61.33% ( -0.22) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 62.73% ( -0.4) | 37.27% ( 0.39) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 40.52% ( -0.43) | 59.48% ( 0.43) |
| Portland Timbers Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 86.44% ( -0.23) | 13.55% ( 0.23) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 59.36% ( -0.46) | 40.64% ( 0.46) |
| Minnesota United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.95% ( -0.07) | 29.04% ( 0.07) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 35.04% ( -0.09) | 64.95% ( 0.08) |
| Score Analysis |
| Portland Timbers | Draw | Minnesota United |
| 2-1 @ 9.72% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 7.87% ( 0.08)2-0 @ 7.86% ( 0.02)3-1 @ 6.48% ( -0.05)3-0 @ 5.24% ( -0.03)3-2 @ 4% ( -0.04)4-1 @ 3.24% ( -0.05)4-0 @ 2.62% ( -0.04)4-2 @ 2% ( -0.04)5-1 @ 1.29% ( -0.03)5-0 @ 1.05% ( -0.02)Other @ 3.7% Total : 55.06% | 1-1 @ 9.73% ( 0.09) 2-2 @ 6.01% ( -0.01)0-0 @ 3.94% ( 0.07)3-3 @ 1.65% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.28% Total : 21.6% | 1-2 @ 6.01% ( 0.04) 0-1 @ 4.87% ( 0.08)0-2 @ 3.01% ( 0.05)1-3 @ 2.48% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 2.48% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 1.24% ( 0.02)Other @ 3.26% Total : 23.34% |
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