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Premier League | Gameweek 9
Oct 22, 2023 at 4.30pm UK
Villa Park
WH

Aston Villa
4 - 1
West Ham

Luiz (30', 52' pen.), Watkins (74'), Bailey (89')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Bowen (56')
Palmieri (54')

Form, Standings, Stats

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aston Villa win with a probability of 54.83%. A win for West Ham United had a probability of 22.91% and a draw had a probability of 22.3%.

The most likely scoreline for an Aston Villa win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.89%) and 2-0 (8.48%). The likeliest West Ham United win was 1-2 (5.97%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.29%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Aston Villa would win this match.

Result
Aston VillaDrawWest Ham United
54.83% (0.552 0.55) 22.26% (0.224 0.22) 22.91% (-0.776 -0.78)
Both teams to score 58.43% (-1.802 -1.8)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
59.16% (-1.928 -1.93)40.84% (1.928 1.93)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
36.77% (-2 -2)63.23% (2.001 2)
Aston Villa Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
85.16% (-0.482 -0.48)14.84% (0.484 0.48)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
56.84% (-0.932 -0.93)43.15% (0.932 0.93)
West Ham United Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
68.62% (-1.716 -1.72)31.38% (1.717 1.72)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
32.25% (-2.037 -2.04)67.75% (2.038 2.04)
Score Analysis
    Aston Villa 54.83%
    West Ham United 22.91%
    Draw 22.25%
Aston VillaDrawWest Ham United
2-1 @ 9.82% (0.074 0.07)
1-0 @ 8.89% (0.619 0.62)
2-0 @ 8.48% (0.454 0.45)
3-1 @ 6.25% (-0.06 -0.06)
3-0 @ 5.39% (0.2 0.2)
3-2 @ 3.62% (-0.212 -0.21)
4-1 @ 2.98% (-0.082 -0.08)
4-0 @ 2.57% (0.052 0.05)
4-2 @ 1.73% (-0.134 -0.13)
5-1 @ 1.14% (-0.051 -0.05)
5-0 @ 0.98% (0.003 0)
Other @ 3%
Total : 54.83%
1-1 @ 10.29% (0.25 0.25)
2-2 @ 5.69% (-0.231 -0.23)
0-0 @ 4.66% (0.398 0.4)
3-3 @ 1.4% (-0.154 -0.15)
Other @ 0.21%
Total : 22.25%
1-2 @ 5.97% (-0.136 -0.14)
0-1 @ 5.4% (0.223 0.22)
0-2 @ 3.13% (-0.017 -0.02)
1-3 @ 2.31% (-0.167 -0.17)
2-3 @ 2.2% (-0.2 -0.2)
0-3 @ 1.21% (-0.066 -0.07)
Other @ 2.71%
Total : 22.91%

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Form Guide
Last Game: Wolves 1-1 Aston Villa
Sunday, October 8 at 2pm in Premier League
Last Game: Aston Villa 1-0 Zrinjski Mostar
Thursday, October 5 at 8pm in Europa Conference League
Last Game: Aston Villa 6-1 Brighton
Saturday, September 30 at 12.30pm in Premier League
Last Game: Aston Villa 1-2 Everton
Wednesday, September 27 at 7.45pm in EFL Cup
Last Game: Chelsea 0-1 Aston Villa
Sunday, September 24 at 2pm in Premier League
Last Game: Legia 3-2 Aston Villa
Thursday, September 21 at 5.45pm in Europa Conference League
Last Game: West Ham 2-2 Newcastle
Sunday, October 8 at 2pm in Premier League
Last Game: Freiburg 1-2 West Ham
Thursday, October 5 at 5.45pm in Europa League
Last Game: West Ham 2-0 Sheff Utd
Saturday, September 30 at 3pm in Premier League
Last Game: Lincoln 0-1 West Ham
Wednesday, September 27 at 7.45pm in EFL Cup
Last Game: Liverpool 3-1 West Ham
Sunday, September 24 at 2pm in Premier League
Last Game: West Ham 3-1 Backa Topola
Thursday, September 21 at 8pm in Europa League


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