It is extremely difficult to back Everton with any real conviction at the moment - especially amid Calvert Lewin's fitness woes - while Newcastle are only on an upward trajectory.
A potential lack of midfield options could spell danger for the visitors, but we can still see Newcastle getting their revival back on track as Everton's relegation fears deepen.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Everton win with a probability of 45.92%. A win for Newcastle United had a probability of 27.6% and a draw had a probability of 26.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Everton win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.01%) and 2-0 (8.58%). The likeliest Newcastle United win was 0-1 (8.74%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.55%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Everton in this match.
