A Nunez-inspired Benfica ought to be well up for this colossal European tie in front of their own fans, but their veteran backline of Vertonghen and Otamendi could prove easy pickings for Liverpool's rampant attackers.
Klopp admitted that his side did not create enough against Watford as the players begin to gel following the international break, and this may be a closer affair than the Reds would like, but they should still take advantage of Benfica's recent defensive lapses to claim a first-leg advantage.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Liverpool win with a probability of 43.96%. A win for Benfica had a probability of 31.49% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Liverpool win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.8%) and 0-2 (6.98%). The likeliest Benfica win was 2-1 (7.5%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.49%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 4.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Liverpool would win this match.
