SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 79.02%. A draw had a probability of 12.7% and a win for Brighton & Hove Albion had a probability of 8.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 2-0 with a probability of 9.1%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (9.04%) and 2-1 (8.25%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.54%), while for a Brighton & Hove Albion win it was 1-2 (2.51%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with an 8.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Manchester City would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Manchester City | Draw | Brighton & Hove Albion |
79.02% ( 0.64) | 12.67% ( -0.25) | 8.3% ( -0.4) |
| Both teams to score 56.61% ( -0.89) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 74.51% ( -0.17) | 25.48% ( 0.17) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 54.45% ( -0.22) | 45.54% ( 0.22) |
| Manchester City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 94.92% ( 0.06) | 5.07% ( -0.07) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 79.8% ( 0.2) | 20.19% ( -0.21) |
| Brighton & Hove Albion Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 59.64% ( -0.98) | 40.36% ( 0.98) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 23.02% ( -0.9) | 76.98% ( 0.9) |
| Score Analysis |
| Manchester City | Draw | Brighton & Hove Albion |
| 2-0 @ 9.1% ( 0.18) 3-0 @ 9.04% ( 0.22)2-1 @ 8.25% ( -0.06)3-1 @ 8.2% ( -0.02)4-0 @ 6.74% ( 0.2)4-1 @ 6.12% ( 0.02)1-0 @ 6.1% ( 0.09)5-0 @ 4.02% ( 0.13)3-2 @ 3.72% ( -0.11)5-1 @ 3.65% ( 0.03)4-2 @ 2.77% ( -0.07)6-0 @ 2% ( 0.08)6-1 @ 1.81% ( 0.02)5-2 @ 1.65% ( -0.03)Other @ 5.85% Total : 79.02% | 1-1 @ 5.54% ( -0.06) 2-2 @ 3.75% ( -0.13)0-0 @ 2.05% ( 0.02)3-3 @ 1.13% ( -0.06)Other @ 0.21% Total : 12.67% | 1-2 @ 2.51% ( -0.1) 0-1 @ 1.86% ( -0.03)2-3 @ 1.13% ( -0.07)Other @ 2.8% Total : 8.3% |
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