Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 67.07%. A draw had a probability of 16.5% and a win for Liverpool had a probability of 16.43%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (7.78%) and 2-0 (6.37%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.2%), while for a Liverpool win it was 1-2 (4.14%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 5.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Manchester City would win this match.
