SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 46.78%. A win for Liverpool had a probability of 32.27% and a draw had a probability of 20.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (5.79%) and 3-2 (4.98%). The likeliest Liverpool win was 1-2 (6.85%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (7.98%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Manchester City would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Manchester City | Draw | Liverpool |
46.78% ( 1.75) | 20.95% ( 0.16) | 32.27% ( -1.92) |
| Both teams to score 71.89% ( -1.52) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 73.2% ( -1.62) | 26.79% ( 1.62) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 52.77% ( -2.08) | 47.22% ( 2.08) |
| Manchester City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 87.6% ( -0.08) | 12.4% ( 0.08) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 61.71% ( -0.17) | 38.28% ( 0.17) |
| Liverpool Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.06% ( -1.66) | 17.93% ( 1.65) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 51.24% ( -2.92) | 48.75% ( 2.92) |
| Score Analysis |
| Manchester City | Draw | Liverpool |
| 2-1 @ 8.33% ( 0.34) 3-1 @ 5.79% ( 0.22)3-2 @ 4.98% ( -0.08)2-0 @ 4.85% ( 0.45)1-0 @ 4.64% ( 0.44)3-0 @ 3.37% ( 0.3)4-1 @ 3.02% ( 0.11)4-2 @ 2.6% ( -0.05)4-0 @ 1.76% ( 0.15)4-3 @ 1.49% ( -0.11)5-1 @ 1.26% ( 0.04)5-2 @ 1.09% ( -0.02)Other @ 3.6% Total : 46.78% | 1-1 @ 7.98% ( 0.35) 2-2 @ 7.15% ( -0.09)3-3 @ 2.85% ( -0.21)0-0 @ 2.22% ( 0.22)Other @ 0.74% Total : 20.95% | 1-2 @ 6.85% ( -0.06) 2-3 @ 4.1% ( -0.29)1-3 @ 3.93% ( -0.26)0-1 @ 3.82% ( 0.18)0-2 @ 3.28% ( -0.02)0-3 @ 1.88% ( -0.12)2-4 @ 1.76% ( -0.23)1-4 @ 1.69% ( -0.21)3-4 @ 1.23% ( -0.16)Other @ 3.74% Total : 32.27% |
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