SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 81.95%. A draw had a probability of 11.7% and a win for Aston Villa had a probability of 6.38%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (10.67%) and 2-1 (8.01%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.41%), while for an Aston Villa win it was 1-2 (2%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 7.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 3-1 win for Manchester City in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Manchester City.
| Result | ||
| Manchester City | Draw | Aston Villa |
81.95% ( -0.87) | 11.67% ( 0.54) | 6.38% ( 0.33) |
| Both teams to score 49.64% ( -0.41) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 71.53% ( -1.45) | 28.47% ( 1.45) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 50.68% ( -1.81) | 49.32% ( 1.81) |
| Manchester City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 94.83% ( -0.41) | 5.17% ( 0.41) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 79.53% ( -1.24) | 20.47% ( 1.24) |
| Aston Villa Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 52.35% ( -0.2) | 47.65% ( 0.2) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 17.03% ( -0.15) | 82.97% ( 0.15) |
| Score Analysis |
| Manchester City | Draw | Aston Villa |
| 2-0 @ 10.8% ( 0.34) 3-0 @ 10.67% ( 0.05)2-1 @ 8.01% ( 0.21)3-1 @ 7.91% ( -0.01)4-0 @ 7.91% ( -0.19)1-0 @ 7.29% ( 0.42)4-1 @ 5.86% ( -0.17)5-0 @ 4.69% ( -0.25)5-1 @ 3.47% ( -0.2)3-2 @ 2.93% ( -0.02)6-0 @ 2.31% ( -0.19)4-2 @ 2.17% ( -0.08)6-1 @ 1.72% ( -0.15)5-2 @ 1.29% ( -0.08)7-0 @ 0.98% ( -0.11)Other @ 3.93% Total : 81.94% | 1-1 @ 5.41% ( 0.28) 2-2 @ 2.97% ( 0.06)0-0 @ 2.46% ( 0.21)Other @ 0.83% Total : 11.67% | 1-2 @ 2% ( 0.1) 0-1 @ 1.82% ( 0.14)Other @ 2.55% Total : 6.38% |
ISOCountry Code:
Matched Country Groups:
