SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newcastle United win with a probability of 52.23%. A draw had a probability of 24.3% and a win for Nottingham Forest had a probability of 23.46%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newcastle United win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.65%) and 0-2 (9.32%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.55%), while for a Nottingham Forest win it was 1-0 (6.92%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Newcastle United would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Nottingham Forest | Draw | Newcastle United |
23.46% ( 0.59) | 24.3% ( -0.05) | 52.23% ( -0.53) |
| Both teams to score 52.36% ( 0.85) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 50.78% ( 0.78) | 49.21% ( -0.78) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 28.72% ( 0.7) | 71.27% ( -0.7) |
| Nottingham Forest Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.48% ( 0.97) | 35.51% ( -0.97) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 27.72% ( 0.99) | 72.28% ( -0.99) |
| Newcastle United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.19% ( 0.09) | 18.81% ( -0.09) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 49.76% ( 0.15) | 50.23% ( -0.15) |
| Score Analysis |
| Nottingham Forest | Draw | Newcastle United |
| 1-0 @ 6.92% ( -0.04) 2-1 @ 5.98% ( 0.14)2-0 @ 3.58% ( 0.07)3-1 @ 2.06% ( 0.1)3-2 @ 1.73% ( 0.09)3-0 @ 1.24% ( 0.06)Other @ 1.96% Total : 23.46% | 1-1 @ 11.55% ( -0.03) 0-0 @ 6.68% ( -0.22)2-2 @ 5% ( 0.13)3-3 @ 0.96% ( 0.05)Other @ 0.11% Total : 24.3% | 0-1 @ 11.16% ( -0.32) 1-2 @ 9.65% ( 0)0-2 @ 9.32% ( -0.25)1-3 @ 5.38% ( 0.02)0-3 @ 5.19% ( -0.12)2-3 @ 2.78% ( 0.08)1-4 @ 2.25% ( 0.01)0-4 @ 2.17% ( -0.04)2-4 @ 1.16% ( 0.04)Other @ 3.17% Total : 52.23% |
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