SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester United win with a probability of 45.19%. A win for Newcastle United had a probability of 29.33% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester United win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.16%) and 2-0 (7.84%). The likeliest Newcastle United win was 0-1 (8%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.1%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Manchester United would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Manchester United | Draw | Newcastle United |
45.19% ( 0.4) | 25.47% ( 0.05) | 29.33% ( -0.45) |
| Both teams to score 53.73% ( -0.42) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 50.17% ( -0.42) | 49.82% ( 0.42) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 28.17% ( -0.38) | 71.82% ( 0.38) |
| Manchester United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.97% ( 0.01) | 22.03% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 44.65% ( 0.01) | 55.35% ( -0.01) |
| Newcastle United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.91% ( -0.54) | 31.09% ( 0.54) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 32.58% ( -0.64) | 67.41% ( 0.64) |
| Score Analysis |
| Manchester United | Draw | Newcastle United |
| 1-0 @ 10.36% ( 0.18) 2-1 @ 9.16% ( 0.03)2-0 @ 7.84% ( 0.14)3-1 @ 4.62% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 3.95% ( 0.07)3-2 @ 2.7% ( -0.03)4-1 @ 1.75% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 1.5% ( 0.03)4-2 @ 1.02% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.31% Total : 45.19% | 1-1 @ 12.1% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 6.85% ( 0.12)2-2 @ 5.35% ( -0.07)3-3 @ 1.05% ( -0.03)Other @ 0.12% Total : 25.47% | 0-1 @ 8% ( 0.02) 1-2 @ 7.07% ( -0.09)0-2 @ 4.67% ( -0.06)1-3 @ 2.75% ( -0.08)2-3 @ 2.08% ( -0.06)0-3 @ 1.82% ( -0.05)Other @ 2.93% Total : 29.33% |
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