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Premier League | Gameweek 22
Feb 5, 2023 at 2pm UK
City Ground
LL

Nott'm Forest
1 - 0
Leeds

Johnson (14')
Danilo (30'), Boly (52'), Williams (55'), Surridge (90+1')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Struijk (13'), Wober (77')

Form, Standings, Stats

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Leeds United win with a probability of 41.13%. A win for Nottingham Forest had a probability of 32.78% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Leeds United win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.71%) and 0-2 (7.11%). The likeliest Nottingham Forest win was 1-0 (8.83%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.4%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood.

Result
Nottingham ForestDrawLeeds United
32.78% (0.358 0.36) 26.09% (-0.152 -0.15) 41.13% (-0.204 -0.2)
Both teams to score 53.31% (0.608 0.61)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
48.92% (0.733 0.73)51.08% (-0.729 -0.73)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
27.06% (0.638 0.64)72.94% (-0.636 -0.64)
Nottingham Forest Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
70.64% (0.601 0.6)29.36% (-0.598 -0.6)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
34.66% (0.73 0.73)65.34% (-0.727 -0.73)
Leeds United Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
75.46% (0.22499999999999 0.22)24.54% (-0.221 -0.22)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
40.99% (0.314 0.31)59.01% (-0.311 -0.31)
Score Analysis
    Nottingham Forest 32.78%
    Leeds United 41.13%
    Draw 26.08%
Nottingham ForestDrawLeeds United
1-0 @ 8.83% (-0.112 -0.11)
2-1 @ 7.6% (0.079 0.08)
2-0 @ 5.41% (0.022 0.02)
3-1 @ 3.11% (0.083 0.08)
3-0 @ 2.21% (0.045 0.04)
3-2 @ 2.18% (0.071 0.07)
4-1 @ 0.95% (0.04 0.04)
Other @ 2.49%
Total : 32.78%
1-1 @ 12.4% (-0.08 -0.08)
0-0 @ 7.2% (-0.213 -0.21)
2-2 @ 5.34% (0.09 0.09)
3-3 @ 1.02% (0.04 0.04)
Other @ 0.12%
Total : 26.08%
0-1 @ 10.12% (-0.23 -0.23)
1-2 @ 8.71% (0.0020000000000007 0)
0-2 @ 7.11% (-0.117 -0.12)
1-3 @ 4.08% (0.027 0.03)
0-3 @ 3.33% (-0.033 -0.03)
2-3 @ 2.5% (0.058 0.06)
1-4 @ 1.43% (0.018 0.02)
0-4 @ 1.17% (-0.004 -0)
Other @ 2.67%
Total : 41.13%

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Form Guide
Last Game: Man Utd 2-0 Nott'm Forest
Wednesday, February 1 at 8pm in EFL Cup
Last Game: Nott'm Forest 0-3 Man Utd
Wednesday, January 25 at 8pm in EFL Cup
Last Game: Bournemouth 1-1 Nott'm Forest
Saturday, January 21 at 3pm in Premier League
Last Game: Nott'm Forest 2-0 Leicester
Saturday, January 14 at 3pm in Premier League
Last Game: Nott'm Forest 1-1 Wolves (4-3 pen.)
Wednesday, January 11 at 7.45pm in EFL Cup
Last Game: Blackpool 4-1 Nott'm Forest
Saturday, January 7 at 3pm in FA Cup
Last Game: Accrington 1-3 Leeds
Saturday, January 28 at 12.30pm in FA Cup
Last Game: Leeds 0-0 Brentford
Sunday, January 22 at 2pm in Premier League
Last Game: Leeds 5-2 Cardiff
Wednesday, January 18 at 7.45pm in FA Cup
Last Game: Aston Villa 2-1 Leeds
Friday, January 13 at 8pm in Premier League
Last Game: Cardiff 2-2 Leeds
Sunday, January 8 at 2pm in FA Cup
Last Game: Leeds 2-2 West Ham
Wednesday, January 4 at 7.45pm in Premier League


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