Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arsenal Tula win with a probability of 45.38%. A win for Nizhny Novgorod had a probability of 27.51% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arsenal Tula win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.61%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.82%) and 2-0 (8.72%). The likeliest Nizhny Novgorod win was 0-1 (9.24%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.76%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.5% likelihood.
