Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Zenit St Petersburg win with a probability of 82.25%. A draw had a probability of 11.5% and a win for Arsenal Tula had a probability of 6.26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Zenit St Petersburg win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (10.68%) and 4-0 (7.99%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.31%), while for an Arsenal Tula win it was 1-2 (1.97%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 10.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Zenit St Petersburg would win this match.
