Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Spartak Moscow win with a probability of 44.69%. A win for Nizhny Novgorod had a probability of 29.05% and a draw had a probability of 26.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Spartak Moscow win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.27%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.99%) and 0-2 (8.12%). The likeliest Nizhny Novgorod win was 1-0 (8.67%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.48%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.5% likelihood.
