Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Ufa win with a probability of 55.57%. A draw had a probability of 24% and a win for Arsenal Tula had a probability of 20.46%.
The most likely scoreline for a FC Ufa win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.42%) and 2-1 (9.69%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.38%), while for an Arsenal Tula win it was 0-1 (6.7%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that FC Ufa would win this match.