Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Dynamo Moscow win with a probability of 50.81%. A win for Arsenal Tula had a probability of 25.32% and a draw had a probability of 23.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Dynamo Moscow win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.88%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.65%) and 0-2 (8.47%). The likeliest Arsenal Tula win was 1-0 (6.57%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.25%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 2.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Dynamo Moscow would win this match.
