Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rostov win with a probability of 43.92%. A win for Arsenal Tula had a probability of 29.71% and a draw had a probability of 26.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rostov win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.91%) and 0-2 (7.95%). The likeliest Arsenal Tula win was 1-0 (8.81%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.53%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Rostov would win this match.
