Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Spartak Moscow win with a probability of 47.22%. A win for FC Krasnodar had a probability of 28.87% and a draw had a probability of 23.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Spartak Moscow win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.75%) and 2-0 (7.39%). The likeliest FC Krasnodar win was 1-2 (7.07%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.12%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.1% likelihood.
