Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Las Palmas win with a probability of 54.34%. A draw had a probability of 25.2% and a win for Malaga had a probability of 20.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Las Palmas win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.82%) and 2-1 (9.39%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.82%), while for a Malaga win it was 0-1 (7.45%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Las Palmas would win this match.
