Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fuenlabrada win with a probability of 41.93%. A win for Malaga had a probability of 29.16% and a draw had a probability of 28.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fuenlabrada win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.36%) and 2-1 (8.08%). The likeliest Malaga win was 0-1 (10.84%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.24%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Fuenlabrada in this match.
