Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Malaga win with a probability of 38.16%. A win for Ponferradina had a probability of 32.02% and a draw had a probability of 29.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Malaga win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.54%) and 2-1 (7.49%). The likeliest Ponferradina win was 0-1 (12.08%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.45%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 12.2% likelihood.
