SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AC Milan win with a probability of 62.47%. A draw had a probability of 21.5% and a win for Monza had a probability of 16.02%.
The most likely scoreline for an AC Milan win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.52%) and 2-1 (9.82%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.22%), while for a Monza win it was 0-1 (5.33%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AC Milan would win this match.
| Result | ||
| AC Milan | Draw | Monza |
62.47% ( -0.18) | 21.5% ( 0.02) | 16.02% ( 0.15) |
| Both teams to score 48.96% ( 0.27) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 52.41% ( 0.19) | 47.59% ( -0.19) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 30.21% ( 0.17) | 69.79% ( -0.18) |
| AC Milan Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.35% ( 0) | 14.65% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 57.21% ( 0.01) | 42.79% ( -0.02) |
| Monza Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 57.36% ( 0.31) | 42.64% ( -0.32) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 21.02% ( 0.27) | 78.98% ( -0.27) |
| Score Analysis |
| AC Milan | Draw | Monza |
| 1-0 @ 11.99% ( -0.1) 2-0 @ 11.52% ( -0.08)2-1 @ 9.82% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 7.38% ( -0.05)3-1 @ 6.29% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 3.54% ( -0.03)4-1 @ 3.02% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 2.68% ( 0.03)5-0 @ 1.36% ( -0.01)4-2 @ 1.29% ( 0.01)5-1 @ 1.16% ( 0)Other @ 2.42% Total : 62.46% | 1-1 @ 10.22% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 6.25% ( -0.05)2-2 @ 4.19% ( 0.04)Other @ 0.85% Total : 21.5% | 0-1 @ 5.33% ( 0) 1-2 @ 4.36% ( 0.04)0-2 @ 2.27% ( 0.02)1-3 @ 1.24% ( 0.02)2-3 @ 1.19% ( 0.02)Other @ 1.64% Total : 16.02% |
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