Despite signing some experienced heads in the summer, the occasion could prove too much for Monza to handle as they tackle their mighty neighbours. With Milan recovering injured players and having enjoyed a free midweek, expect them to win and stay on Napoli's coat-tails.
Read more.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AC Milan win with a probability of 62.47%. A draw had a probability of 21.5% and a win for Monza had a probability of 16.02%.
The most likely scoreline for an AC Milan win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.52%) and 2-1 (9.82%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.22%), while for a Monza win it was 0-1 (5.33%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AC Milan would win this match.
-0.18) 
0.02) 
