SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Napoli win with a probability of 73.44%. A draw had a probability of 16.1% and a win for Spezia had a probability of 10.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Napoli win was 0-2 with a probability of 11.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.32%) and 0-3 (9.28%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.52%), while for a Spezia win it was 2-1 (3.12%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Napoli would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Spezia | Draw | Napoli |
10.5% ( 0.03) | 16.05% ( -0.05) | 73.44% ( 0.02) |
| Both teams to score 51.67% ( 0.3) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 64.24% ( 0.33) | 35.75% ( -0.33) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 42.17% ( 0.36) | 57.82% ( -0.36) |
| Spezia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 56.4% ( 0.28) | 43.6% ( -0.28) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 20.21% ( 0.23) | 79.79% ( -0.23) |
| Napoli Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 91.62% ( 0.08) | 8.38% ( -0.09) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 70.84% ( 0.21) | 29.15% ( -0.21) |
| Score Analysis |
| Spezia | Draw | Napoli |
| 2-1 @ 3.12% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 3.03% ( -0.03)2-0 @ 1.26% ( -0)3-2 @ 1.07% ( 0.02)Other @ 2.02% Total : 10.5% | 1-1 @ 7.52% ( -0.04) 2-2 @ 3.87% ( 0.03)0-0 @ 3.65% ( -0.06)Other @ 1.01% Total : 16.05% | 0-2 @ 11.22% ( -0.1) 1-2 @ 9.32% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 9.28% ( -0.04)0-1 @ 9.06% ( -0.11)1-3 @ 7.7% ( 0.03)0-4 @ 5.75% ( -0)1-4 @ 4.78% ( 0.04)2-3 @ 3.2% ( 0.04)0-5 @ 2.85% ( 0.01)1-5 @ 2.37% ( 0.03)2-4 @ 1.98% ( 0.03)0-6 @ 1.18% ( 0.01)2-5 @ 0.98% ( 0.02)1-6 @ 0.98% ( 0.02)Other @ 2.78% Total : 73.43% |
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